a. Georgia Initiates Naval Blockade of Abkhazia

The President of Georgia, Tie-eating psychopath Mikheil Saakashvili, has decided to enforce a naval blockade on the breakaway province of Abkhazia -- on the Black Sea. A naval blockade is usually an act of war. But perhaps not here, with any luck. As some may remember, Georgian shelling of S Ossetian civilians and subsequent Russian counterattack was responsible for a brief 'hot' war which began on 8/8/8. The situation in Georgia could flare up once again.

This may be important to your crude investment positions as the BTC pipeline runs through Georgia, and carries approx 1 mmbpd from the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan and Georgia to both Supsa and Cehyan -- ports on the Black Sea and Mediteranian Sea, respectively. Two days prior the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, this pipeline was bombed and remained shut down for 19 days. The impact on the oil price in 2008 was muted due to the massive double-top and subsequent price collapse (Hubbert is rolling in his grave). We assume a similar non-effect would occur again, unless this were to escalate into a regional conflict.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking+News/World/Story/STIStory_419353.html