Saturday, August 15, 2009

Grand Supercycle Wave III, now time for the corrective phase

The most PROBABLE scenario is for this bear market to continue. Bob Prechter's Conquer the Crash shows you a lot of the initial evidence, plus we regularly add to that list in our monthly publications. For example, if you haven't yet, read what Bob has to say in his August Elliott Wave Theorist. These charts and explanation from the November 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast should also help:

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, November 2008 (quote; bold added): "It’s hard to believe, but since last month’s issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast observed the 'fever pitch' of the government bailout effort, authorities took these stunning measures: The Senate passed the most aggressive bailout bill in history, world central banks orchestrated a globally coordinated rate cut, the U.S. government announced a plan to own direct stakes in U.S. banks and Congress placed another stimulus package on a fast track for approval. Last month EWFF flatly stated, 'It won’t work.' The 27% decline from the end of September to the October 10 interim low illustrates what we meant by 'won’t work.' The series of charts here shows why. Powerful bearish forces are tugging on the stock market, and the charts illustrate what they are: downside waves of Grand Supercycle, Supercycle, Cycle, Primary and Intermediate degrees. These charts reveal the potential size of the remaining stock market decline in the bear market.

"The five-wave rally that ended in 2000 marks the top of a Grand Supercycle impulse wave, which means that the decline that began last October is now correcting the entire Grand Supercycle and Supercycle degree advances from 1784 and 1932, respectively. As the idealized Elliott wave chart shows,
ABC corrections most often find a low near the bottom of the area of the previous fourth wave."

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