Saturday, December 25, 2010

As the rest of the world celebrates Christmas...

Shanghai Stocks Drop Following Failed 3 Month Bill Auction

blissfully pretending all is good, and the Fed can manipulate markets to infinity without at least one of the numerous violated laws of physics being reasserted in the process, things in China are once again reminding those who care that just as liquidity giveth, so does liquidity taketh away. We pointed out a week ago that the 7 day Repo rate in China recently hit a post-Lehman high, as banks are increasingly concerned that following 3 RRR hikes, the PBOC has no choice but to resort to some tightening measure that actually works. As a result excess liquidity has suddenly become rares than hen's teeth. Today we get a first hand lesson of why this was material: Dow Jones reports that the Chinese MoF has failed to attract sufficient interest in its 3 Month 20 billion CNY auction. The result: SHCOMP is now down 1.2%. Bottom line: as the world is sleeping, China just had a failed bond auction. If news mattered, this would be a very disturbing event. Luckily for Ben, it doesn't. For the time being. It will soon. Then Montier's mean reversion meme may just strike with great deferred vengeance and furious accrued anger.
From Dow Jones:
China shares extend their falls following news the Ministry of Finance fails to attract enough bids to sell all of its planned CNY20 billion 3-month bills in an auction. The Shanghai Composite Index is now down 1.2% at 2819.72 and analysts peg support at 2800. The MOF's unsuccessful bill auction is fresh evidence of tight liquidity conditions in the market, due to China's three RRR hikes since November and rising cash demand near the year-end. "Institutions are inclined to expedite pocketing in some profit," says China Post Securities, adding "the situation will increase the likelihood of a bearish market in the short term." Banks continue to fall on various news reports that China is likely to use new measures, such as special RRR hikes, to rein in credit expansion next year.
Incidentally, the last time China had a failed bond auction was in mid April, just as the stock market hit its then 2010 highs, only to be followed by a drop to the year's lows.
h/t London Dude Trader

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